Today I was part of a webinar with Scotiabank’s Adrienne Warren, their Senior Economist, who gave me an update on the global and national economic picture as determined by them. Here are some highlights (at bottom is a slide gallery with some of the graphics that she shared):
- slower emerging market growth looking forward, particularly from China which they see as a re-balancing
- weaker 1% GDP growth for Canada in 2015 and 2016 with a rebound to the typical 2% growth mark in 2017
- commodity prices are still under pressure (energy)
- 40% cut back in energy spending last year and looking at 25% cut back this year which has a negative implication on economy and jobs
- Because of the low dollar, you see the increase of exports and tourism (not as many fleeing to the States)
- stable regional growth in Ontario due to larger inflows of populations
- More of same housing sales this year in Ontario and BC
- overall sellers market nationally
- Scotiabank projects one increase from the Bank of Canada this year and another year of low 5 year fixed mortgage rates
- Apartment/Condo housing starts still great than single detached with down sizing and the want of being more centrally located leading the way
- They see the homebuyer demographic of 25-34 year olds purchasing for first time decreasing year over year.
- We still have a sound mortgage market here which is well positioned to absorb a downturn in home prices
If you have any follow up questions, please let me know and I will give you my opinion or at least do the research to get you the best answer! Call or text me at 613-294-4475 or email me at nick@mortgageinottawa.com
