Ottawa mortgage guide · dated outlook
By Nick Bachusky, Mortgage Agent Level 1 · Published July 10, 2026
I get asked this every week right now, especially by anyone with a renewal coming up. When will mortgage rates go down in Canada? Everyone wants a date.
Here is my honest answer. Nobody can give you a firm one, and anyone who does is guessing. Rates are set by inflation, the economy and global markets, and none of that runs on a calendar.
So let me do something more useful. I will show you the real Bank of Canada numbers, explain what actually moves rates, give you the exact dates to watch, and then tell you what I would do instead of waiting. If you want to skip ahead, you can also compare current Ottawa mortgage rates any time.
The short version
Honestly, nobody knows for certain. As of June 10, 2026 the Bank of Canada policy rate is 2.25%, held since October 2025. Whether it drops again this year depends on inflation and the economy, which no one can promise. I would plan around your budget, not a forecast.
Here is the honest context most headlines skip. Rates already came down a long way. The Bank of Canada cut its policy rate from 3.00% in early 2025 down to 2.25% by that autumn. The big relief has mostly happened.
Then it stopped. The Bank has held at 2.25% at four straight meetings in 2026. The reason is simple. Inflation ticked back up to 3.2% in May 2026, above the Bank\'s 2% target, so it is waiting rather than cutting.
The Bank\'s own April 2026 Monetary Policy Report projects inflation easing back toward 2% in 2027. That is a projection, not a promise. It hints at room to cut later, but it is not a date you can bank on.
So will mortgage rates go down in Canada in 2026? Maybe a little, maybe not at all. The Bank has four more decisions this year, and it will move only if the data lets it. That uncertainty is exactly why I look at fixed versus variable through the lens of your budget, not a guess.
Two different engines. Your variable rate follows the Bank of Canada policy rate, through your lender\'s prime rate. Your fixed rate follows the bond market and the lender\'s funding costs. So what makes mortgage rates go down is not one thing, it is two, and they do not always move together.
Start with variable. The Bank of Canada sets its policy rate on eight fixed dates a year. When it cuts, the prime rate falls, and your variable rate falls with it. When it holds, your variable rate sits still. That is the direct line between a Bank of Canada interest rate decision and your payment.
Fixed rates work differently. Lenders raise the money for fixed mortgages from investors, so fixed pricing tracks Government of Canada bond yields plus a margin. In mid 2026 the five-year bond yield sat around 3%, which is a big reason fixed rates were higher than variable. When those yields climb, fixed rates tend to climb too.
Behind both sits inflation. High inflation keeps the Bank cautious and keeps investors demanding more, so rates stay up. Cooling inflation is what opens the door to lower rates. You can read the mechanics straight from the Bank of Canada\'s own explainer on what is behind your mortgage rate.
Here is the part most people miss. Fixed and variable can move in opposite directions. In early 2020 the Bank of Canada cut hard, so variable rates dropped. At the same time nervous investors pushed lender funding costs up, so some fixed rates actually rose in the same stretch. Same market, opposite directions. It is why I never assume a Bank cut automatically lowers every rate.
Real data, straight from the source
Down, then flat. The Bank of Canada policy rate, the one your variable mortgage follows, fell from 3.00% in January 2025 to 2.25% by October 2025. It has stayed at 2.25% ever since. The chart below is the real Bank of Canada data, not an estimate.
Hover or tap any point to see the rate on that date.
Source: Bank of Canada, target for the overnight rate. Latest point June 10, 2026, at 2.25%. The Bank sets this rate on eight scheduled dates a year, so it can change again.
That drop is why 2025 felt like relief for variable holders. The flat line since is the Bank waiting on inflation. Read together, it suggests the fast, easy cuts are likely behind us, and any further drop will be slower and data driven.
On its scheduled dates, not at random. The Bank of Canada sets its interest rate eight times a year. Four decisions are left in 2026: July 15, September 2, October 28 and December 9. Those are the only days your variable rate can move from a Bank decision.
15
July 2026
with the Monetary Policy Report
2
September 2026
28
October 2026
with the Monetary Policy Report
9
December 2026
Source: Bank of Canada 2026 schedule of policy interest rate announcements. Announcements are at 09:45 ET. The July and October dates also bring the Monetary Policy Report, the Bank\'s fuller economic outlook.
This is why I tell clients to watch dates, not headlines. A rate will not drop on a random Tuesday because an article said it might. It moves on these days, and only if the inflation and jobs numbers give the Bank room.
The next Bank of Canada interest rate decision, July 15, 2026, matters a little more than most. It comes with the Monetary Policy Report, which lays out the Bank\'s own read on where inflation and the economy are heading. That is the closest thing to an official outlook you will get.
Because a wave of Canadians is renewing into higher rates. About 980,000 fixed rate mortgages come up for renewal across Canada in 2026, and roughly 60% of people renewing in 2025 and 2026 face a higher payment. In Ottawa, that is a lot of households running this exact math.
~980,000
fixed rate mortgages renewing across Canada in 2026
Source: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation renewal data and Bank of Canada staff analysis on renewal payment changes. National figures, dated 2025 to 2026, illustrative of the trend rather than your specific file.
Many Ottawa buyers and owners have steady public sector income, which lenders tend to price well. That helps. It does not change the fact that a renewal deadline arrives whether or not rates have dropped.
So waiting for a magic lower number is a gamble against the clock. The smarter move is to plan the renewal early and keep your options open, which is exactly how I approach an Ottawa renewal.
At a bank, no one calls you to say rates came down.
From how I actually work
I do not wait for a rate to drop and hope. Through your whole term I keep watching your rate against the market, and I reach out first when a switch or an early renewal makes sense. When I hold a rate for you, it protects you for up to about 120 days while we decide, without locking you in.
That is the difference between an agent who tracks your file for you and a lender who waits for your term to lapse. Nobody at a bank is watching your mortgage for a chance to save you money.
Get ready, do not guess. You cannot time the bottom, so set yourself up to win either way. Lock a rate hold while you shop, choose a mortgage with a smaller break penalty so you can switch if rates fall, and start your renewal early. Then a lower rate helps you and a higher one does not trap you.
A pre-approval can hold a rate for roughly 60 to 120 days. It protects you if rates rise while you shop. Ask one blunt question up front: if rates fall while I am held, do I automatically get the lower one? The answer decides how much that hold is really worth.
If rates do fall in a year or two, you want to be free to move. A mortgage with a smaller break penalty lets you switch and capture the saving. A rate is not just a rate, the penalty matters. It is why I weigh the exit cost on every fixed versus variable call.
Do not wait for the mailed renewal letter, which is almost never the best offer. Start about 120 days out and gather competing quotes. A federally regulated lender must send your renewal statement at least 21 days before your term ends, and the rate it quotes cannot rise before your renewal date. That gives you a safe baseline to negotiate from. Decide with a competing offer in hand, not out of loyalty. Here is how to negotiate your mortgage rate step by step.
That is the honest playbook. Instead of betting on a date nobody can promise, you set yourself up to win whichever way rates go. Before you do anything, it helps to run your real numbers so you know your true budget today.
Still wondering?
Maybe, but nobody can promise it. As of June 10, 2026 the Bank of Canada policy rate is 2.25%, held since October 2025. Four decisions are left this year. Rates will only fall if inflation and the economy allow it.
The next Bank of Canada interest rate decision is July 15, 2026. After that the dates are September 2, October 28 and December 9, 2026. The Bank sets its rate on eight fixed dates a year, so those are the days it can move.
Ontario does not have its own mortgage rate. When will mortgage rates go down in Ontario is the same question as for the rest of Canada, because the Bank of Canada sets policy nationally. Local demand moves home prices, not the rate itself.
What makes mortgage rates go down is easing inflation and a slower economy. That lets the Bank of Canada cut its policy rate, which lowers variable rates. Separately, falling bond yields lower fixed rates. The two do not always move together.
I would not simply wait and hope. You cannot time the bottom, and a renewal deadline does not pause. A rate hold and a smaller penalty let you benefit if rates fall without getting stuck if they do not.
Not always. A fixed rate follows bond yields, not the Bank's policy rate directly. In early 2020 the Bank cut while some fixed rates rose. A variable rate is the one that follows a Bank of Canada cut.
About the author
I am Nick Bachusky, a Mortgage Agent Level 1 working under Referral Mortgages Inc. (FSRA #13316). I have spent 14 years in mortgages, including time at RBC and TD, and I follow the Bank of Canada closely so my clients do not have to guess.
I work one file at a time and keep it plain. Every client should feel like my only client. If you want an honest read on whether to wait or lock in, I am one WhatsApp message away.
Nick Bachusky · Mortgage Agent Level 1 · Referral Mortgages Inc. · FSRA #13316. Rate and inflation figures on this page are dated examples (June 2026 and earlier), not forecasts or guarantees. Always confirm the current rate before you decide.
Keep reading
A few plain-language reads to take the next step, from today\'s rates to your renewal plan and the penalty math.
See today's fixed and variable rates, quoted by file, and the penalty behind each one.
Nick Bachusky July 2026 My honest lean on fixed versus variable, and why the break penalty matters more than the rate.
Nick Bachusky July 2026 Start early, bring a real competing offer, and negotiate before you sign the first one.
Nick Bachusky July 2026 Use a real competing offer to compare rate, penalty, portability and fees before you commit.
Nick Bachusky July 2026 4.9 stars from 61 Google reviews left by clients I have worked with across Ottawa.
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I will read your situation honestly, shop dozens of lenders, and show you the real numbers. No pressure, no exclusivity, and no promises about where rates go next.
Nick Bachusky · Mortgage Agent Level 1 · Referral Mortgages Inc. · FSRA #13316.