Ottawa Housing Market Update, October 2026: What a Chief Economist Sees for Buyers and Homeowners

Where does the Ottawa housing market stand right now?

Ottawa is flat on price and softer underneath. The average September 2026 sale price was $685,640, down 1.0% from a year earlier. Sales are steady but below last year, listings surged, and the Bank of Canada is on hold at 2.25%. Buyers have more room than at any point in recent years.

Here are the four numbers that matter most, all from the Ottawa Real Estate Board’s September report released October 5, 2026.

• Prices are roughly flat, with early signs of softening. The benchmark price was $623,500, down 0.3% from a year earlier. It did fall 2.2% from August, the largest August to September drop in OREB’s series, which dates to 2005, so it is worth watching.
• Sales are steady but below last year. 1,010 homes sold in September, down 6.6% from a year earlier. That is slightly up from 1,002 in August. Year to date, Ottawa sales are down 6.9%.
• Supply jumped. New listings rose 38.1% from August to 2,927, and active listings reached 4,813, the second highest September level since 2016.
• Rates are on hold. The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% on September 2, 2026, its seventh straight hold. The next announcement is October 28, 2026.

Casey expects Ottawa prices to finish 2026 within about 2% of last year, in either direction. He hopes 2027 moves back toward Ottawa’s long run average of about 3% growth per year.

What are Ottawa home prices by type of home?

Ottawa home prices depend heavily on the type of home. Single family homes are holding near last year at a $705,100 benchmark. Townhouses dipped 2.2% to $546,500. Condo apartments are the soft spot, with a $380,800 benchmark, down 6.1% from last year and 7.3 months of inventory.

Source: OREB MLS® Home Price Index, September 2026.

Where you buy matters as much as what you buy. Ottawa’s suburbs made up 72.7% of all September sales. The west suburbs, around Kanata and Stittsville, had the firmest market with 3.7 months of inventory. The east suburbs around Orléans sat at 4.3 months, and the south suburbs around Barrhaven at 4.4.

Downtown is a different story. The Ottawa Centre area, which takes in neighbourhoods like Centretown, had 6.8 months of inventory and a ratio of just 27.6%. If you are shopping for a condo downtown, you are shopping in the most buyer friendly corner of the Ottawa real estate market. Read the condo side of the file before you write an offer.

What is happening with jobs and population in Ottawa?

Ottawa’s unemployment rate has been rising but is still within its normal long term range. Population growth has stalled after federal immigration cuts. That mostly softens rental demand for now, since most newcomers rent for their first few years.

Across Ontario, the hardest hit sectors have been education, because of fewer international students, and trade, because of U.S. tariffs.

On population, Canada grew faster than any other G7 country from 2021 to 2024. The federal government then cut immigration targets in late 2024. Casey said 2025 was the first year in Canadian history in which the population did not grow. He expects it to stay flat for now, then slowly rise again.

What changed for first time buyers in Ottawa?

Two federal rule changes took effect on December 15, 2024. First time buyers, and anyone buying a newly built home, can now use a 30 year amortization on an insured mortgage. The insured price cap also rose to $1.5 million. The stress test is still in place.

• 30 year amortizations are now open to all first time buyers and to new build purchases. The limit used to be 25 years.
• The insured mortgage price cap rose to $1.5 million from $1 million, according to the Department of Finance. You can buy up to $1.5 million with less than 20% down.

Casey said these changes brought first time buyers back in real numbers. Roughly 60% of the files Sagen sees now use a 30 year amortization. Sagen is also doing 200 to 300 more deals per week in Ontario than in 2024. Sagen’s own review found most buyers pick the longer amortization to keep monthly cash flow comfortable, not because they could not qualify otherwise.

The stress test is still here. You still have to qualify at the higher of your contract rate plus 2% or 5.25%. The federal regulator OSFI reviews that rule at least once a year and has left it unchanged. Casey does not expect it to disappear, though he hopes for an adjustment. My stress test guide shows how much it shrinks your approval. If this is your first purchase, start with my first time home buyer guide for Ottawa.

What does the Ottawa housing market mean for you?

It depends on where you sit. Buyers have more choice and room to negotiate than in years. People renewing can switch lenders without a new stress test. Homeowners who are struggling have free help available, but only if they ask early.

If you are buying. In September, Ottawa homes sold for an average of 97.5% of list price and sat 27 days on the market. Condos are the softest segment. If you have been waiting, a pre approval with a rate hold protects you while you shop. It also puts you ahead of the pent up demand Casey expects to return. Run your budget on my mortgage calculator first.

If you are renewing. Do not simply sign the renewal letter your lender sends. Since November 21, 2024, you can switch to another federally regulated lender at renewal without requalifying under the stress test. The catch is that you cannot increase your mortgage or extend your amortization. That puts you in a strong spot to negotiate, and it is exactly how I approach an Ottawa mortgage renewal. Decide with leverage, not loyalty.

If you are a homeowner who is struggling. Reach out early. If your mortgage is insured with Sagen, its Homeowner Assistance Program is free. It is built for short term setbacks like job loss, illness or separation. Casey said decisions usually come within 24 to 48 hours. About 90% of the people Sagen helps are back on track within a year. CMHC and the other insurers offer similar support, and I can help you find out which one applies to you.